In most tests, it seems like it's best to leave it alone for swing trading, but if you look at the day trades, you could look at them.

What caught my eye on Thursday

Biotech closed at a record high, and it has tech in the name, so that has to make someone happy.

Intel fell about 23% after the close.

Amazon fell about 7% too, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped another 1.6% after hours.

Tonight's free trade: CRM

• Entry: BUY LIMIT $225.91, day order

• Stop: On the fill day's close; the sheet says if hit

• Exit: Dated sell at the open Nov 3; target after a fill

If it never fills, it cancels itself and there is no trade.

How Wide Mean Reversion works

Liquid stocks outside the Nasdaq-100 that are still in long-term uptrends sometimes take a bigger-than-usual one-day drop. We rest a buy limit beneath the market for the snap-back. We get out fast: a profit target the session after the fill, or the open two sessions after it. Built in 2026 and tested back to 2001.

One thing worth knowing

Wide Mean Reversion's winners and losers are about the same size. In our 26-year test, winners averaged +4.43% and losers -4.17%. The edge is how often it wins: 61.8% of 3,203 trades made money.

Would you take this one? Hit reply and tell me how you'd play it. I read every reply.

Below: the rest of tonight's ideas, the exact orders, and how we're managing the open positions.

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What caught my eye on Wednesday

The Fed kept rates where they are today. The market barely blinked: in the half hour after the 2:00 p.m. statement, the S&P 500 never moved more than 0.2% either way, and it closed just 0.1% above where it stood right before. Small caps wobbled more, then finished the past week up 1.7%, while everything else on this chart ended within 0.6% of where it started.

Alphabet and Microsoft both reported right after the 4:00 p.m. close, and their stocks went opposite ways.

Microsoft went the other way.

Tonight's free trade: GRMN

How to place it: enter a BUY LIMIT for GRMN at $266.58, good for the day only - if it never fills, it cancels itself and there is no trade. We sell for Monday, November 2. Members get the exact profit target on the sheet the evening after a fill, a sell limit for the next session only, and that sheet also says whether the close on the day you are filled hit its stop. Do NOT rest a stop order for this one: its stop counts only on the close of the day you are filled. An intraday dip is normal and is not an exit.

How Wide Mean Reversion works

Liquid stocks outside the Nasdaq-100 that are still in long-term uptrends sometimes take a bigger-than-usual one-day drop. We rest a buy limit beneath the market for the snap-back. We get out fast: a profit target the session after the fill, or the open two sessions after it. Built in 2026 and tested back to 2001.

One thing worth knowing

Waiting for a lower price is where this kind of dip buy earns its money. In our test, buying at the next morning's open made +0.13% a trade on average. Buying only at our lower limit price made +1.12%, more than eight times as much.

Would you take this one? Hit reply and tell me how you'd play it. I read every reply.

Below: the rest of tonight's ideas, the exact orders, and how we're managing the open positions.

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Is a good lesson to always know whether it's a trading strategy or a financial instrument what you're getting into. the pros, the cons, the ups, and the down before pulling the trigger.

Rapid7 is a cybersecurity company whose software scans corporate networks and cloud environments for vulnerabilities and watches for attacks in progress. RPD made a big one-day move up and has stayed in the top half of that day's range since. Tonight's free trade is a buy stop at $18.11, with the stop and exit written out below. Energy fell the most of the sectors on Tuesday.

What caught my eye on Tuesday

The CMT Association shared my chart of this level today and called it THE level for the markets here. The green line is the S&P 500's June high, about 7,620. It stopped the rally cold in June, the index broke through it in August, and since then it has acted as the floor: buyers stepped in there in early September, the index slipped under it for a few days in mid-September and got straight back above, and in the last few days it has been tested again. Holding here keeps the uptrend that started in April intact. A close well below it would change the picture.

Small caps are back over the 200-day. IWM, the Russell 2000 fund, had held above its 200-day average since the end of March, then slid about 11% from its August high and spent two weeks under it this month. Today it closed back above, and the average itself is still rising. When small caps join in, the rally is broader than just the biggest names.

The calendar is lining up with it, too. This chart shows the S&P 500's average path through the second half of the year, every year since 1928, and the dashed line is today. In the average year, the fall dip bottoms right about now: the index is up about 1.4% from July 1 to here, then gets to about 4.3% by New Year's Eve, roughly another 3% from here, and it rose over that stretch in about 7 years out of 10. It is an average, not a promise, and plenty of years go their own way. But if you have been waiting for the calendar to turn friendly, history says it usually does about now.

Tonight's free trade: RPD

• Buy stop $18.11, day order

• Target: sell limit $24.31, good till cancelled

• Stop: sell stop $15.01, good till cancelled

• Time exit: sell at the open Thu Dec 3

The stop is a real order: enter it with the buy. The system re-sets it after every close, and members get each new level. When the target or the stop fills, cancel the other. Cancel both before you sell on the time exit.

How Bull-Flag Momentum works

A stock shows exceptional power, then rests quietly without giving back its gains - the crowd that missed the move is waiting underneath. We buy the actual resumption of the advance - never the rest itself - and a structure under the rest period defines the risk. Low win rate, big winners - the math lives in the asymmetry.

One thing worth knowing

Bull flags did not need a rising market. In our test since 2001, Bull-Flag Momentum trades bought while the Nasdaq 100's short-term trend pointed up made +0.61% on average. Trades bought when it did not made +2.06%, more than three times as much.

Would you take this one? Hit reply and tell me how you'd play it. I read every reply.

Below: the rest of tonight's ideas, the exact orders, and how we're managing the open positions.

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Asana sells cloud-based work management software that teams use to plan, assign and track projects. ASAN just had an unusually strong up-week. Tonight's free trade is a buy limit at $11.26, with the stop and exit written out below. Industrials stood out among the sectors on Monday.

The market on Monday

• S&P 500 (SPY) 765.37, +0.71%

• Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 712.20, +1.11%

• Russell 2000 (IWM) 276.99, +0.45%

• Dow (DIA) 522.97, +0.31%

• VIX 18.39, -5.45%

Industrials (XLI) stood out on Monday, up 1.42%, about 1.7 times a normal day's move. It is still down 1.1% over the last 20 sessions.

Tonight's free trade: ASAN

• Buy limit $11.26, day order

• Target: sell limit $12.76, good till cancelled

• Stop: after a close beneath $9.51, sell at the next open

• Time exit: sell at the open Tue Nov 3

The stop is not an order you place. The system re-sets it each night, and members get each new level. If the stop or the time exit comes first, cancel the target before you sell, so two sells can't both fill.

How Surge Pullback works

A stock just posted an unusually powerful up-week while its longer trend is still early. We don't chase: we rest one buy limit near the average price paid since the stock's most recent low and let the normal pullback come to us. A profit target, a five-session clock or a protective stop on a close hands the shares back, whichever comes first.

One thing worth knowing

Most nights this order never fills. In our tests about 1 order in 6 did. When we only placed it once the stock had already started slipping, half the orders filled, but our book made about 6 percentage points a year less. The surprise fills were the best trades.

Would you take this one? Hit reply and tell me how you'd play it. I read every reply.

Tonight's Trade Sheet - 2026-10-27

Everything for tomorrow is in the trade sheet - every idea, the exact orders, and the exits on open positions.

Trade sheet (PDF) - the ideas and the orders:

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However, being higher doesn't mean that the road is simple and easy, so we are going to combine this with some simple trend studies.

The MACD was invented in the 1970’s and works just great as a simple on-off switch for looking at trends. So we are going to use that. The rules are simple with a full breakdown below.

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I sent you a short note a couple of weeks back. You’re one of the readers who opens the Evening Note just about every night, and I wanted to say thanks again for that.

I’m following up once because the Month One offer ends this Sunday, October 25. After that it’s gone.

Quick reminder of what paid adds: every trade on the nightly sheet instead of one, the PDF, the workbook, and the Discord room.

If you want in, there are two ways:

$989 for the first year (ends Sunday):
letters.statsedgetrading.com/monthone

Or monthly at $149:
letters.statsedgetrading.com/subscribe

If it’s not for you right now, no problem at all. The free trade keeps coming every night either way.

Thanks for reading,
Michael

Monday's free trade: BVS

• Entry: BUY STOP $15.10, day order

• Stop: SELL STOP $14.23, GTC, with the buy

• Exit: SELL LIMIT $18.16, GTC, with the buy; else sell at the open Dec 1

If it never fills, it cancels itself and there is no trade.

How Bull-Flag Momentum works

A stock shows exceptional power, then rests quietly without giving back its gains - the crowd that missed the move is waiting underneath. We buy the actual resumption of the advance - never the rest itself - and a structure under the rest period defines the risk. Low win rate, big winners - the math lives in the asymmetry.

The rest of Monday's sheet is below the line: 9 more swing orders in 9 other stocks, 57 day trades, and the exit plan for every open position.

Reading in Gmail? If this landed in Promotions, drag it to Primary and say yes to future messages, or add michaelnausscmt@substack.com to your contacts.

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More than anything, this is a good time to look at your trading and what you’re trying to do. If you notice that your portfolio is down twenty, thirty, forty percent with the RSP rallying, then you’re just very invested in the AI trade, which is a personal choice, but it’s one that you should at least know that you’re making.

if you want to trade based off data and statistics like this, as opposed to just chasing that hot stock or what’s happening in the market, come on over to stats at trading.com and give us a try there.

Tonight's free trade: CRS

• Buy limit $292.26, day order

• Exit: a dated market-on-open sell for Mon Nov 30, attached to the buy

• Target: members get the sell limit on the sheet the evening of a fill

• Stop: none on this one

If it never fills, it cancels itself and there is no trade.

How Flush Gap works

Sometimes an oversold stock opens far below its prior close on heavy volume, a capitulation flush. We rest a buy limit for the next session and hold for the rebound: a fixed profit target, or a dated sale at the open. Built in 2026 and tested back to 2001.

The rest of Friday's sheet is below the line: 11 more swing orders in 11 other stocks, 60 day trades, and the exit plan for every open position.

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The market on Wednesday

• S&P 500 (SPY) 773.09, +0.53%

• Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 725.20, +1.05%

• Russell 2000 (IWM) 276.48, +0.25%

• Dow (DIA) 527.70, +0.64%

• VIX 16.68, -3.64%

Technology (XLK) led Wednesday, up 1.67%. It is still down 3.5% over the last 20 sessions.

Tonight's trade: DXCM

• Buy limit $79.32, day order

• Stop: after a close beneath $71.45, sell at the next open

• Exit: a close above the prior day's high sells it at the next open

• Time exit: sell at the open Tue Nov 10

The stop is not an order you place: only a close beneath $71.45 counts. It assumes a fill at the limit; a lower fill lowers it by the same amount. Whichever exit comes first closes the trade.

How Mean Reversion works

The most-watched names in the market get defended. This system buys a hard pullback in a leader that is still in a healthy longer-term uptrend, with a buy limit just under the close. Out within days.

The rest of Thursday's sheet is below the line: 3 more swing orders in 3 other stocks, 25 day trades, and the exit plan for all 10 open positions. Open tonight's full sheet

Reading in Gmail? If this landed in Promotions, drag it to Primary and say yes to future messages, or add michaelnausscmt@substack.com to your contacts.

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For more systematic content like this, make sure you follow. And as always, if you want to trade with statistics and not vibes, sign up below.

We already bought plenty this week, those positions are working out nicely after the market's strong bounce, and the swing book is full. That is systems trading done right: when the book is full, we let the trades we hold do their work instead of forcing new ones.

In the room tomorrow, the focus is on our day-trading systems.

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