Check out the…

Read more

Read more

Subscribe now

The chapter is titled around change, and that is the entire lesson. Low-float shorting worked until everyone crowded in and borrow costs killed it. Tape reading worked until the algorithms priced it out. Each time, the same loop: learn an edge somewhere, borrow it, modify it to fit what you already do, test it, add it, and let go when it dies.

That loop is my job description too, and his best line makes the case better than I can. Everything works sometimes. Nothing works all the time.

Which is the argument for uncorrelated edges rather than one perfect one. If a strategy goes flat, it costs you a little buying power while the others carry the load. And dead usually means dormant. The crowd leaves, the costs normalize, and the edge quietly comes back for whoever stayed.

One throwaway line I am already testing: he watches for stocks stretched far from a 5-period moving average. I run Bollinger Bands off the 20 and have never tried the 5.

If you want the edges I find delivered with entries, stops, and sizing, that’s Stats Edge Pro. $149.99 a month, 30-day money-back guarantee.

Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMS

Check out the new bet…

Read more

Subscribe now

Two reasons. The first is the smoke test. Take a random entry, wrap tight risk management around it, and you can make almost anything look profitable. Good for you, but you have not found an edge, you have found a stop loss. Strip it out and see whether the signal predicts anything on its own.

The second is finding where the stop belongs. Maximum adverse excursion is the worst point of each trade, how far underwater you went before it resolved. Collect that across every trade, normalize by ATR, and you stop guessing at round numbers.

The trap: optimizing purely for profit usually says the best stop is no stop, which is untradeable. And tight stops look brilliant in a backtest right up until the bid-ask spread eats them. I have built the 5-cent-stop strategy that printed money in simulation and died on contact.

One more, because order matters. Choose the stop first, rerun, then choose the target. One backtest cannot tell you which came first.

If you want systems where the stop, the sizing, and the honest drawdowns are already worked out, that’s Stats Edge Pro. $149.99 a month, 30-day money-back guarantee.

Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMS

Read more

Subscribe now

It has nearly doubled since the February low, driven by West African weather. That part isn’t the interesting bit. This is: the last time cocoa ran like this, it went up around 460%. To match it from here, this move needs another 187%.

An old mentor of mine put it best. Commodities do nothing, and then everything. They sit dead for years, sometimes decades, then run further than anyone thinks is reasonable. Silver did it. And the same rule cuts the other way, because when it ends, it ends, and there are people still waiting on silver gains they gave back trying to catch the next leg.

The setup is a clean bull flag. Break the range, stop under the low, then trail behind the 50-day and let the trend decide. Hershey’s is the inverse expression for anyone who doesn’t trade futures, since higher input costs squeeze chocolate margins.

But I don’t take purely technical trades. I need a statistical parallel in cocoa’s history or in commodities generally before I risk money, and if I find one, Pro members get the full plan by email and in Discord first, the way every one of these goes out.

That is what Stats Edge Pro is, the systems and the setups with entries, stops, and sizing. $149.99 a month, 30-day money-back guarantee.

Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMSf

Please review the day t…

Read more

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XqK9ir3iaVxz8hobZPtNy16Olf7-LElC/view?usp=sharing

What’s below this line

Everything. Every trade for next week, across all three swing systems:

• The pullback setups

• The momentum setups

• The mean reversion setups

For every single one: the exact entry trigger, the stop loss, and the time stop. [N] setups this week.

This is not a watchlist and it is not commentary. It is the actual systematic output, the same list I am trading with my own money next week. No “keep an eye on this.” No guesswork. Entry, stop, exit, for every trade. You set your orders Sunday night and the week runs itself.

These are the systems I walked through in The 25-Year Backtest, tested across every regime since 2000, drawdowns included. What is below the line is those systems telling you exactly what to do next week.

Paid members also get real-time Discord alerts the moment any of these levels trigger during the week. You set the orders Sunday, the alerts confirm when they fire. You never have to watch the screen.

If you are already a paid member, the full plan is below. If you are not, this is the post to upgrade on. The Sunday Plan is the core of what Stats Edge Pro is, and you are one click from the whole thing.

Read more

I want to walk you through the why, because I’ve been trading the weekly systems for years, they work, and I don’t rip up a working process for fun.

It's important to note, to start with, that our core systems do not change; they simply update to be exploited more often.

1. This was not possible before AI.

I run Stats Edge alone. To do this daily, the data has to be rebuilt every night, the orders run, a report built for every single trade, and the whole thing in your inbox before the open. That was never a one-person job. One person with an AI research partner is a different story. The machine runs the process every night, and I review every page before it goes anywhere. Nothing gets sent without my hands on it. Even two years ago I could not have built this. This year I did.

2. More green months. And I’ll say the trade-off out loud.

The daily book gives a little back in absolute return compared to the weekly systems. I’m not going to pretend otherwise. What we get back is consistency, and as my account has grown over the years, I’ve come to value consistency over basically everything else.

Think of an edge as a coin weighted in your favor. The weekly systems flip that coin 52 times a year, so a cold streak can own your whole quarter. The daily book flips the same coins 252 times a year, and the math gets room to breathe. Since 2015, the daily book’s worst month is -6.4% against -9.5% for the weekly, with more green months over that stretch too. And the full 26-year test finished positive in all 26 years. Same edges. Five times the at-bats.

The reason for this is that we were wasting a lot of captial before sitting in orders all week that didnt trigger. Now we get to exploit more edges as I find them.

3. Twenty-four hour markets are coming whether you like them or not.

This one matters more than people think. Right? Sessions keep stretching, overnight venues keep growing, and the 9:30-to-4 world is dissolving in front of us. A weekly process makes one decision and then watches for five days. A daily process re-reads the market every night. When markets finally run around the clock, the books already living at a faster cadence will be the ones that are ready. I’d rather be early.

4. Your time commitment doesn’t change.

Instead of sitting down on the weekend and sending a big batch of orders, you send a couple orders each day. Open the sheet, place the orders, close the laptop. Five minutes, maybe ten if you read everything, because most of the research is already printed on the card: the entry, the stop, how we trade it, and the algorithm’s 25-year record. I’m also going to record myself placing my own orders from the sheet every so often, so you can see exactly what the routine looks like.

That’s the why. If you want to be part of this while it’s being built, that’s what Stats Edge Pro is. $149.99 a month or $1,499.99 a year, with a 30-day money-back guarantee. Join today and the next trade sheet is in your inbox with tomorrow’s Morning Note.

Subscribe now

Get away from the screens, trade safe.

Michael

Subscribe now

And the average large cap stock, using the equal-weight S&P as the proxy, is down about 1.5%. Mid caps down 2%. The Russell down 3%. A correction is 10%. This isn’t even close.

Here’s the mechanism. Ten stocks make up 37% of the S&P 500, so when Tesla and Google get smoked and the Dow barely moves, an enormous rotation has to be happening underneath. The tell is the destination. Institutions selling their 10x chip winners aren’t buying Campbell’s Soup and bonds, which would mean leaving the field. They’re buying financials, industrials, utilities, real estate. Still in stocks. Still risk-on. Just no longer piled into one sector, because no one pays a fund manager to sit on a lucky 30% position.

If your portfolio got obliterated this week while the indexes shrugged, that’s the diagnosis. Too concentrated in the crowded names. The market is fine. The crowding wasn’t. Our systems trade through regimes like this without me touching anything, and the drawdowns they take doing it are published every week.

If you want those systems delivered with entries, stops, and sizing, that’s Stats Edge Pro. $149.99 a month, 30-day money-back guarantee.

Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMS

Ple…

Read more

Please review the day trading levels a…

Read more

Subscribe now

His best line is the whole chapter in one sentence. If you don’t have an edge but amazing discipline, you are just managing a slowly rotting pile of capital. The trading world has this exactly backwards. Everybody blames psychology, and when you ask for the backtest proving their system works, there isn’t one. Prove the edge first. Then discipline has something worth protecting. Every system I run has a 26-year backtest behind it for exactly this reason, drawdowns included and published.

Where the consistency actually comes from: spreads. Good news that favors the broad market over tech? He buys one index, shorts the other, and profits on the gap either direction. Not directional bets, relative ones. And he treats edges as mortal. They degrade, he retires them, he hunts new ones constantly, and the hunt never stops because the more edges you run, the less any single death matters.

That last part is the steal. Spread trades are new territory for me, everything I run is directional, and it just went to the top of the testing list. If I get one tenth of that consistency, I’ll take it.

If you want the edges I find delivered with entries, stops, and sizing, that’s Stats Edge Pro. $149.99 a month, 30-day money-back guarantee.

Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMS

Please revie…

Read more

Read more

Subscribe now

The harder case is when live and backtest agree and both point down. Then you’re facing the question with no answer: is the edge gone, or is this noise? Nobody knows, and anyone who claims a formula is selling something. What helps: out-of-sample testing to build confidence in your process, knowing what edge you’re actually exploiting so you can ask whether the world changed, and version control tight enough to know whether the tweak you made three months ago is the real culprit.

Dave’s line from part one still holds. No trader has ever quit at equity highs. The whole point of this work is to still be there when the curve turns. Ours turned plenty of times in 26 years, and every one of those drawdowns is published, not hidden.

If you want systems where the reconciliation, the sizing, and the drawdown reporting are already done for you, that’s Stats Edge Pro. $149.99 a month, 30-day money-back guarantee.

Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMS

Please rev…

Read more

Read more

Subscribe now

Right now that oscillator says speculators are more short natural gas than they’ve been in three years. Paired with the chart, UNG just undercut a major low around 10 dollars and rallied back through, the second trap at that support.

The plan Pro members got: enter on the open, stop just under support at 9.90, then convert to a trailing stop and let it run. No target, because the whole strategy lives on the rare runner. The honest numbers: the beta system wins about 33% of the time, the drawdown curve touched 33%, and there’s a decade in the backtest where it does nothing. Most trades are small haircuts. One in three pays for everything. That’s what a real edge looks like before the polish, and the losses will get published at the same volume as the wins.

These setups, plus the ten core systems, go to Stats Edge Pro members whenever the scans find one. $149.99 a month, 30-day money-back guarantee.

Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMS