Bitcoin just moved roughly 25% in a few days and broke back above its 200-day moving average after spending close to a year underneath it. That’s a real change of character.
I still have no position, and the reason matters more than the move.
Forced buying is not the same as buying
Billions of dollars of short positions were liquidated on this move. That’s a squeeze.
A squeeze is people being forced to buy because their risk was blown out, not people deciding Bitcoin is worth owning at this price. Those look identical on a chart and they are completely different things underneath.
It might keep going. Squeezes often do. But I want to know what’s actually driving a move before I fund it.
The statistics do favour continuation
After a 9 to 10% single-day move, the average 30-day return has been strong. When that move also clears the 200-day, it’s stronger.
We’re already most of the way to the first number.
But a good statistic is not a trade plan. Knowing something tends to happen doesn’t tell you where to enter, where you’re wrong, or how much to risk.
The plan I’m actually waiting for
While price holds above the 200-day, wait for a 5-period RSI pullback into oversold, buy that, and exit on overbought. If it gets oversold and loses the 200-day instead, I’m out and I was wrong.
Binary. No thinking required once it’s defined.
I’m backtesting it properly before it goes anywhere near members. And if Bitcoin never pulls back and runs from here, I miss it. That’s fine.
The habit is the point
Chasing a vertical move might work this time. My concern is what it teaches you for next time.
That’s Stats Edge Pro. $149.99 a month, 30-day money-back guarantee.