Market’s been dead. I’m hoping the summer thing is done.
Traditional story is Labor Day, desks fill back up, tape wakes up. I tested it instead of nodding along.
September is usually the soft month. Covered that. This one’s flat so far. Fine.
The useful bit: Sept/Oct candles run about 20% bigger than summer. SPX average bar sits around 1.2-1.3 in the quiet months then you get that spike. December slumps back toward summer. Christmas.
It’s not just red bars being fatter because September is weak. Up days get bigger too. Down days get bigger. Just more action. July’s the tightest. August a little more. Then Sept/Oct.
If you eyeball stops or risk a flat 1% on QQQ every trade, that math changes. Same dollar stop in a bigger-candle month means you get tagged more.
I ran a dummy system. Percent stops = messy year to year. ATR stops = smoother. Because some months stocks just move more.
ATR is on TradingView. Last 5 days, what’s the average candle. That’s your yardstick. Half a normal day for a tight stop. A full day for a target. Number updates. You’re not stuck with summer sizing in October.
Every stop in the StatsEdge book is ATR. Bids too. It flexes.
Free list is still one idea a night. New systems are up. statsedgetrading.com. Get away from the screens.