Commodities do nothing, and then everything.
Cocoa is up 95% since February. The last run went 460%.
I went looking this weekend for something with no relationship to AI. Most of us are already loaded up there whether we picked it or not, and correlation does the rest. Cocoa is about as far from a semiconductor as you can get.
It has nearly doubled since the February low, driven by West African weather. That part isn’t the interesting bit. This is: the last time cocoa ran like this, it went up around 460%. To match it from here, this move needs another 187%.
An old mentor of mine put it best. Commodities do nothing, and then everything. They sit dead for years, sometimes decades, then run further than anyone thinks is reasonable. Silver did it. And the same rule cuts the other way, because when it ends, it ends, and there are people still waiting on silver gains they gave back trying to catch the next leg.
The setup is a clean bull flag. Break the range, stop under the low, then trail behind the 50-day and let the trend decide. Hershey’s is the inverse expression for anyone who doesn’t trade futures, since higher input costs squeeze chocolate margins.
But I don’t take purely technical trades. I need a statistical parallel in cocoa’s history or in commodities generally before I risk money, and if I find one, Pro members get the full plan by email and in Discord first, the way every one of these goes out.
That is what Stats Edge Pro is, the systems and the setups with entries, stops, and sizing. $149.99 a month, 30-day money-back guarantee.
Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMSf