DKS opened at $142.74 this morning, down 20.4%.

The first question is not “is the dip worth buying.” It is: where was the stock sitting before the gap? DKS was already broken — below both its 50-day and its 200-day — before this print. That filter decides everything.

So we ran it. 170 big names, full history, every gap down of 15% or worse, buying the gap open itself. The cohort that was already below both moving averages — DKS today — is 222 trades. That group beat its baseline at every horizon we measured. Median outcome: +2.6% by the next day, +5.2% by day eight, +5.4% by day sixteen. The payoff builds. It does not arrive all at once.

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The honest part, because there always is one: the worst trade in that backtest cohort lost 56.9%, and half the cohort drew down 8% before it paid. Real edge, real left tail. That combination is what dictates how we trade it — and the exact plan is below for members.

One more thing: starting this week, the free list gets one real trade idea from my nightly sheet every single night. Costs nothing. This post is what the research behind those looks like.

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

DKS just gapped down 20%. Bounce or knife?

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