Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Evening Note 10/1: HOOD, plus October's portfolio

Consumer Staples fell the most of the sectors on Wednesday. The full HOOD order is below, exits included. Plus one free name from October's investing portfolio.

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Oct 01, 2026
∙ Paid

Below here you’re gonna see not only the day and swing trade for tomorrow but because it’s a new month, we get to rebalance our investment portfolio for the people who are playing along there

The market at Wednesday's close. S&P 500 (SPY) 762.63, down 0.21% on the day. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 739.77, up 0.25% on the day. Russell 2000 (IWM) 277.89, down 0.40% on the day. Dow 30 (DIA) 508.55, down 0.84% on the day. Volatility index (VIX) 16.34, up 1.87% on the day. Each has a line of its last 20 sessions, with a dashed line at where it started.
Standout sector: Consumer Staples (XLP) -1.53%. About 2.4 times a normal day's move for this sector. Down 4.8% over the last 20 sessions. All 11 sector funds on Wednesday: Technology +0.64%, Energy -0.06%, Consumer Discretionary -0.28%, Communication Services -0.45%, Utilities -0.68%, Materials -0.81%, Real Estate -1.04%, Financials -1.13%, Industrials -1.27%, Health Care -1.35%, Consumer Staples -1.53%.

Tonight's free trade: HOOD

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) runs the commission-free brokerage app that popularized zero-fee trading in stocks, options and crypto with retail investors. It closed Wednesday at $112.50, down 3.2%.

This is a Mean Reversion trade. HOOD is deeply washed out. My buy limit sits under Wednesday's close, so it fills only on further selling.

HOOD, Robinhood Markets, Mean Reversion. Daily closes, December 2025 to September 2026, last 112.50. Buy limit 109.13. No stop.

The order goes in before Thursday's open. To copy into your broker:

  • Buy limit $109.13, day order

  • Size: about 5% of your account

  • Stop: none, by design

  • Time exit: sell at the open Mon Oct 5

It fills only if HOOD trades down to $109.13 on Thursday. If it has not filled by Thursday's close, it expires.

Shares are 5% of your account divided by the price. On $10,000 that is $500, or 4 shares.

There is no stop by design. The trade ends at the time exit.

I give away one trade a night, usually the order closest to filling. Members get the rest of Thursday's sheet tonight. That is 12 more swing orders in 10 other stocks, 21 day trades, and tonight's exit plan for all 7 open positions.

October's free investment: LITE

Once a month I also rebalance my investing portfolio. It holds 19 positions this month, with 10% in cash, and only changes at the start of each month.

The data picks the names and I place the orders. Half the money goes into momentum and strength stocks, and the other half into a global ETF rotation.

October's investing portfolio, free preview: the Momentum Stocks group, 5 names at 5% each. One is shown: LITE, Lumentum Holdings, 5% of the account. The other 4 are blurred.

Lumentum Holdings (LITE) makes optical and photonic products. It sits in the Momentum Stocks group this month.

Place it before Thursday's open, Oct 1. For your broker:

  • Buy at the open: market order, day order

  • Size: 5% of your investing account

  • Exit: sell at the open Mon Nov 2. Members see whether it stays for November.

  • Stop: none. The monthly rebalance is the only exit

On a $10,000 investing account, 5% is $500. LITE was about $971.26 a share when the orders were sized, so $500 buys no whole share. One share at 5% needs about $19,500 in the account.

I give away one name from the portfolio each month. Members get the other 18 below, each with its weight, plus the cash slot and the names to sell at Thursday's open.

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