Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Evening Note 10/2: HOOD slid further, limit sits under

Energy led the sectors on Thursday. The full HOOD order is below, exits included.

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Oct 02, 2026
∙ Paid

Energy (XLE) led Thursday, up 1.95%. It is still down 3.1% over the last 20 sessions.

The market at Thursday's close. S&P 500 (SPY) 763.99, up 0.18% on the day. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 742.03, up 0.31% on the day. Russell 2000 (IWM) 279.02, up 0.41% on the day. Dow 30 (DIA) 508.62, up 0.01% on the day. Volatility index (VIX) 16.39, up 0.31% on the day. Each has a line of its last 20 sessions, with a dashed line at where it started.
Standout sector: Energy (XLE) +1.95%. About 1.7 times a normal day's move for this sector. Down 3.1% over the last 20 sessions. All 11 sector funds on Thursday: Energy +1.95%, Technology +1.05%, Industrials +0.99%, Utilities +0.61%, Financials +0.11%, Consumer Discretionary -0.03%, Consumer Staples -0.33%, Materials -0.33%, Real Estate -0.56%, Communication Services -0.93%, Health Care -1.32%.

Tonight's free trade: HOOD

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) runs the commission-free brokerage app that popularized zero-fee trading in stocks, options and crypto with retail investors. It closed Thursday at $111.15, down 1.2%.

This is a Mean Reversion trade. HOOD is deeply washed out. My buy limit sits under Thursday's close, so it fills only on further selling.

HOOD, Robinhood Markets, Mean Reversion. Daily closes, December 2025 to October 2026, last 111.15. Buy limit 107.82. No stop.

The order goes in before Friday's open. To copy into your broker:

  • Buy limit $107.82, day order

  • Size: about 5% of your account

  • Stop: none, by design

  • Time exit: sell at the open Tue Oct 6

It fills only if HOOD trades down to $107.82 on Friday. If it has not filled by Friday's close, it expires.

Shares are 5% of your account divided by the price. On $10,000 that is $500, or 4 shares.

There is no stop by design. The trade ends at the time exit.

I give away one trade a night, usually the order closest to filling. Members get the rest of Friday's sheet tonight. That is 8 more swing orders in 6 other stocks, 27 day trades, and tonight's exit plan for all 11 open positions.

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