Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Evening Note 10/5: TDAY rested, a buy stop sits above

Consumer Discretionary led the sectors on Friday. The full TDAY order is below, exits included.

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Oct 03, 2026
∙ Paid

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) led Friday, up 1.13%. It is still down 5.3% over the last 20 sessions.

The market at Friday's close. S&P 500 (SPY) 769.64, up 0.74% on the day. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 749.58, up 1.02% on the day. Russell 2000 (IWM) 281.52, up 0.90% on the day. Dow 30 (DIA) 511.10, up 0.49% on the day. Volatility index (VIX) 15.31, down 6.59% on the day. Each has a line of its last 20 sessions, with a dashed line at where it started.
Standout sector: Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +1.13%. About 1.3 times a normal day's move for this sector. Down 5.3% over the last 20 sessions. All 11 sector funds on Friday: Consumer Discretionary +1.13%, Technology +1.01%, Industrials +0.78%, Materials +0.66%, Utilities +0.38%, Communication Services +0.35%, Real Estate +0.32%, Consumer Staples +0.25%, Energy +0.19%, Financials +0.06%, Health Care -0.01%.

Tonight's free trade: TDAY

USA TODAY (TDAY) Co is the news publisher behind the USA TODAY national daily and a network of local newspaper titles. It closed Friday at $7.05, down 0.1%.

This is a Bull-Flag Momentum trade. TDAY made a big one-day move up and has stayed in the top half of that day's range since. My buy stop sits above Friday's close, so it fills only on a fresh push higher.

TDAY, USA TODAY, Bull-Flag Momentum. Daily closes, December 2025 to October 2026, last 7.05. Buy stop 7.23. Stop order 6.54.

The order goes in before Monday's open. To copy into your broker:

  • Buy stop $7.23, day order

  • Size: about 5% of your account

  • Target: sell limit $9.01, good till cancelled

  • Stop: sell stop $6.54, good till cancelled

  • Time exit: sell at the open Mon Nov 9

It fills only if TDAY trades up to $7.23 on Monday. If it has not filled by Monday's close, it expires.

Shares are 5% of your account divided by the price. On $10,000 that is $500, or 69 shares.

The stop is a real order. Enter it with the buy. The system re-sets it after every close, and members get the new level each night. Whichever exit comes first closes the trade. Once the target or the stop fills, cancel the other one. For the time exit, cancel both before you sell.

I give away one trade a night, usually the order closest to filling. Members get the rest of Monday's sheet tonight. That is 14 more swing orders in 10 other stocks, 28 day trades, and tonight's exit plan for all 10 open positions.

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