Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Evening Note 10/6: NBIS dropped, limit waits below

Plus the Live Q&A invite

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Oct 05, 2026
∙ Paid

We have our live Q&A tomorrow; you can ask questions via email, Discord, or the live chat. If you miss it, this link will turn into a video when it's done. Come hang out here.

Tonight's free trade: NBIS

Nebius Group (NBIS) is an AI-infrastructure company (spun out of Yandex's international assets): it operates GPU cloud clusters and AI development platforms for training and running models. It closed Monday at $232.57, down 4.2%.

This is a Mean Reversion trade. NBIS just took a hard one-day hit inside a longer uptrend. My buy limit sits under Monday's close, so it fills only on further selling.

NBIS, Nebius Group, Mean Reversion. Daily closes, January to October 2026, last 232.57. Buy limit 219.32. Close stop 183.46.

To copy into your broker before Tuesday's open:

  • Buy limit $219.32, day order

  • Size: about 5% of your account

  • Stop: after a close beneath $183.46, sell at the next open

  • Exit: a close above the prior day's high sells it at the next open

  • Time exit: sell at the open Fri Oct 23

If it has not filled by Tuesday's close, it expires.

On $10,000, 5% is $500, or 2 shares.

The stop is not an order you place: only a close beneath $183.46 counts. It assumes a fill at the limit; a lower fill lowers it by the same amount. Whichever exit comes first closes the trade.

The market at Monday's close. S&P 500 (SPY) 774.83, up 0.67% on the day. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 756.20, up 0.88% on the day. Russell 2000 (IWM) 283.38, up 0.66% on the day. Dow 30 (DIA) 512.11, up 0.20% on the day. Volatility index (VIX) 15.52, up 1.37% on the day. Each has a line of its last 20 sessions, with a dashed line at where it started.
Standout sector: Materials (XLB) +1.31%. About 1.6 times a normal day's move for this sector. Down 5.2% over the last 20 sessions. All 11 sector funds on Monday: Materials +1.31%, Communication Services +1.17%, Energy +1.00%, Financials +0.73%, Health Care +0.72%, Consumer Staples +0.63%, Technology +0.56%, Consumer Discretionary +0.35%, Utilities +0.35%, Industrials +0.09%, Real Estate -0.34%.

Members get the rest of Tuesday's sheet tonight: 12 more swing orders in 8 other stocks, 27 day trades, and the exit plan for all 11 open positions.

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