Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Evening Note 9/29: ORCL washed out, a limit sits below

Consumer Discretionary stood out among the sectors on Monday. The full ORCL order is below, exits included.

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Sep 29, 2026
∙ Paid

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stood out on Monday, down 1.41%, about 1.5 times a normal day's move. It is down 6.8% over the last 20 sessions.

The market at Monday's close. S&P 500 (SPY) 765.61, down 0.74% on the day. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 736.53, down 1.07% on the day. Russell 2000 (IWM) 280.02, down 0.69% on the day. Dow 30 (DIA) 514.02, down 0.67% on the day. Volatility index (VIX) 16.07, up 8.07% on the day. Each has a line of its last 20 sessions, with a dashed line at where it started.
Standout sector: Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -1.41%. About 1.5 times a normal day's move for this sector. Down 6.8% over the last 20 sessions. All 11 sector funds on Monday: Health Care +0.33%, Consumer Staples +0.27%, Energy +0.10%, Real Estate -0.51%, Utilities -0.66%, Materials -0.66%, Technology -0.89%, Industrials -0.97%, Financials -1.19%, Consumer Discretionary -1.41%, Communication Services -1.58%.

Tonight's free trade: ORCL

Oracle (ORCL) sells enterprise database software and a broad suite of business applications, and has become a major cloud-infrastructure provider renting computing capacity. It closed Monday at $132.60, down 3.3%.

This is a Mean Reversion trade. ORCL is deeply washed out. My buy limit sits under Monday's close, so it fills only on further selling.

ORCL, Oracle, Mean Reversion. Daily closes, December 2025 to September 2026, last 132.60. Buy limit 128.62. No stop.

The order goes in before Tuesday's open. To copy into your broker:

  • Buy limit $128.62, day order

  • Size: about 5% of your account

  • Stop: none, by design

  • Time exit: sell at the open Thu Oct 1

It fills only if ORCL trades down to $128.62 on Tuesday. If it has not filled by Tuesday's close, it expires.

Shares are 5% of your account divided by the price. On $10,000 that is $500, or 3 shares.

There is no stop by design. The trade ends at the time exit.

I give away one trade a night, usually the order closest to filling. Members get the rest of Tuesday's sheet tonight. That is 10 more swing orders in 8 other stocks, 15 day trades, and tonight's exit plan for all 8 open positions.

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