Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Evening Note 9/30: FIVE slid, a limit waits below

Utilities led the sectors on Tuesday. The full FIVE order is below, exits included.

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Sep 30, 2026
∙ Paid

Utilities (XLU) led Tuesday, up 1.17%. It is still down 5.3% over the last 20 sessions.

The market at Tuesday's close. S&P 500 (SPY) 764.20, down 0.18% on the day. Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 737.93, up 0.19% on the day. Russell 2000 (IWM) 279.01, down 0.36% on the day. Dow 30 (DIA) 512.88, down 0.22% on the day. Volatility index (VIX) 16.04, down 0.19% on the day. Each has a line of its last 20 sessions, with a dashed line at where it started.
Standout sector: Utilities (XLU) +1.17%. About 1.4 times a normal day's move for this sector. Down 5.3% over the last 20 sessions. All 11 sector funds on Tuesday: Utilities +1.17%, Communication Services +0.26%, Industrials +0.21%, Consumer Discretionary +0.14%, Technology -0.02%, Real Estate -0.02%, Health Care -0.31%, Financials -0.33%, Consumer Staples -0.52%, Materials -0.75%, Energy -0.90%.

Tonight's free trade: FIVE

Five Below (FIVE) is a fast-growing discount retailer whose stores sell candy, toys, party supplies, beauty items, seasonal decor and tech accessories at very low fixed price points, aimed mainly at teens and pre-teens. It closed Tuesday at $222.03, down 2.6%.

This is a Wide Mean Reversion trade. Wide Mean Reversion is a new system in public testing: its orders are real and follow the rules below. FIVE is a liquid, fast-moving stock outside the Nasdaq-100, still in a long-term uptrend, that just had a bigger-than-usual one-day drop for that stock. My buy limit sits under Tuesday's close, so it fills only on further selling.

FIVE, Five Below, Wide Mean Reversion, a new system in public testing. Daily closes, December 2025 to September 2026, last 222.03. Buy limit 213.32. Its target and stop come from the fill day, so neither has a price yet.

The order goes in before Wednesday's open. To copy into your broker:

  • Buy limit $213.32, day order

  • Size: about 4% of your account

  • Time exit: sell at the open Fri Oct 2, attached to the buy so it goes live only once the buy fills

  • Target: nothing to enter tonight. Members get its price on the sheet the evening after a fill, a sell limit for the next session only, day order

  • Stop: judged only on the close of the day you are filled. No stop order to place

It fills only if FIVE trades down to $213.32 on Wednesday. If it has not filled by Wednesday's close, it expires and there is no trade.

Shares are 4% of your account divided by the price. On $10,000 that is $400, or 1 share.

The stop is not an order you place. Only the close of the day you are filled counts, and its level comes from that day's trading, so it has no price tonight. Members get the verdict on the sheet that evening. A hit means you sell at the next morning's open, skip the target and cancel the Friday sale. The target and the Friday sale are one-cancels-other: once one fills, cancel the other, so two sells can't both fill.

I give away one trade a night, usually the order closest to filling. Members get the rest of Wednesday's sheet tonight. That is 5 more swing orders in 3 other stocks, 21 day trades, and tonight's exit plan for all 7 open positions.

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