Monday was the trade if the close is red. This is the day itself.
Normal SPX day is around 1% high to low. FOMC is bigger. Everybody knows that.
The useful part is when.
Overnight gap is usually smaller. People sit on their hands. Morning range is quieter than a normal day. Then the statement. Then the presser. That hour and the hour after is the mess.
July was the cartoon version. Statement pops. They start answering questions. It fades.
Green close by decision type. Hike 55%. Hold 57%. Cut 48%. Opposite of the TV take. I don’t think it’s the hike or the cut. It’s the tape they do it in. Hikes show up in bulls. Cuts show up in bears.
Vol is the other chart. Hold days are boring. Hike days are okay. Cut days are the wild ones.
Market’s pricing a hike around 90%. So maybe less fireworks than a surprise. Still an FOMC afternoon.
First hike after a long pause. Five cases. Four green the next day. Tiny sample. Don’t build a religion on it.
If you day trade, size down or just don’t. I usually take the day off. Sit through a dead morning so I can babysit a two-hour explosion later. No thanks.
Free list: 252 ideas a year. Pro is the whole book. statsedgetrading.com. Get away from the screens.