It’s a great time to be a nerd. We had WoW Forever launch recently, and GTA 6 comes out Thursday, November 19th. This is going to be the largest release of any entertainment product in history, kind of bar none.
Not to bury the lede. I looked at 23 huge game launches and 16 of 23 were lower 20 sessions after launch day.
All 23 flagship launches, launch-day close to 20 sessions later. 16 of 23 finished lower.
There’s usually a run-up into launch too (18 of 23, median +6.7%), but that part isn’t statistically significant, right? The drop after is the result I trust.
Take-Two’s own record is mixed. GTA IV +0.7%, GTA V -0.4%, Red Dead 2 -8.0%. The worst case in the whole study was Cyberpunk 2077 at -33.6%. Which was weird since Red Dead was a better game. :)
Here’s what might be different this time. Take-Two slid into earnings instead of running up, then bounced after the November 9th report with GTA 6 confirmed and pre-orders strong. In the video I walk through the levels I’m watching for a potential short on or after launch day.
This is a discretionary idea, not a system signal, and not advice. Base rates can and do fail.
So, here’s where it gets interesting, right? The study tells you the stock usually drifts lower after a big launch. But a base rate isn’t a trade. So I turned it into one, with simple rules, and ran it on all 23 launches going back to 2008.
17 of 23 worked. That includes both Red Dead launches, and it caught Cyberpunk on the way down.
Below are the exact rules: when I’d get in, where I’d take the win, when I’d admit I’m wrong, and the result for every single launch, losers included. As the data guy, this is the part I’d actually trade.
