Simplest Fed trade I’ve got.
94 meetings since 2000. After a red Fed close, 71% were green 21 days later. Average trade about 1.5%. It’s the S&P. Not going to zero. Not going to double.
Rule: Fed day red. Buy the next open. Sell a month later. That’s the whole thing.
July 2026 version worked. About 4.5%. January one lost 1.5%. Fine.
You would never run this as the whole account. 2000-2008 is mostly nothing. 2019-2021 nothing. Heat map is full of blanks. Green Fed day = sit on your hands until next quarter. 2009 was one trade the whole year.
That’s why it’s in a book of 11. Frequent stuff pays the rent. Rare stuff like this shows up when it shows up.
Why a month. I tested 1 day out to 60. Longer hold makes more because the S&P drifts. Sweet spot is that 15-30-40 day box. Month is clean. Recycle the cash into the next thing.
If Thursday’s red, Pro gets the line in the nightly note.
Free list is still one idea a day. Pro is the whole book. statsedgetrading.com. Get away from the screens.