Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Monday's free trade: CRCT surged this week, limit below

Entry, stop and exit, all free.

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Nov 07, 2026
∙ Paid

The S&P 500 steadied on Friday, up 0.3% after Thursday's 4.4% drop, and the Nasdaq 100 bounced 1.4%. Cricut, the craft cutting-machine maker, jumped 49% on Wednesday after its results, and I would rather buy it a little lower, so our order only fills on Monday if the stock gives some of that back.

CRCT just had an unusually strong up-week. Monday's free trade is a buy limit at $8.52, with the stop and exit written out below.

What caught my eye on Friday

Line chart of the Nasdaq 100 from its first close of 1995 and from October 13, 2022, both starting at 1 and lined up by trading day. After 1,020 trading days the 1995 run was at about 5 times its start and the run since 2022 is at about 2.4 times.

For the people comparing this to the.com bubble if it is, you can see by the chart we have a long way to go.

Monday's free trade: CRCT

  • Buy limit $8.52, day order

  • Target: sell limit $9.75, good till cancelled

  • Stop: after a close beneath $7.04, sell at the next open

  • Time exit: sell at the open Mon Nov 16

CRCT card: buy limit. Entry Limit $8.52, stop $7.04, size 14%, hold Up to 5 days, exit Target or 5 days.

The stop is not an order you place. The system re-sets it each night, and members get each new level. If the stop or the time exit comes first, cancel the target before you sell, so two sells can't both fill.

How Surge Pullback works

A stock just posted an unusually powerful up-week while its longer trend is still early. We don't chase: we rest one buy limit near the average price paid since the stock's most recent low and let the normal pullback come to us. A profit target, a five-session clock or a protective stop on a close hands the shares back, whichever comes first.

One thing worth knowing

How much cash do the day trades need? In our 26-year test they used about 15% of the account on a typical day. Only one day in a hundred needed more than the whole account, and the busiest day, in January 2021, needed twice it.

Would you take this one? Hit reply and tell me how you'd play it. I read every reply.

Reading in Gmail? If this landed in Promotions, drag it to Primary and say yes to future messages, or add michaelnausscmt@substack.com to your contacts.

Below the line: 7 more swing trades and 51 day-trade setups for Monday, with the exact entry, stop and exit for each, plus the stops and exits on our 17 open positions.

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