NEGG: Breakout, Retest, Bounce?
StatEdgeTrading
Trade of the Week is Newegg, ticker NEGG. It triggered off the open after a monster volume breakout on Friday, then pulled back to the prior range high and tapped an anchored VWAP from just before the breakout. That confluence is exactly what I want for a momentum-pullback entry: strength first, then a controlled retest.
Risk first. My invalidation is under the recent swing near 42. Time stop is one week: I’m out next Monday regardless. I’ll trim into any silly spikes because this tape can overshoot both ways—reverse split history and thin liquidity mean emotions run hot. If you’re not in, I’d rather see entries on orderly tags of the anchored VWAP or prior highs than chasing range extensions.
What would change my mind? A decisive close back under the retest zone and anchored VWAP with heavy volume—edge likely gone. Otherwise, the plan is simple: follow the system, let the stats work, and avoid narrative traps. Quant beats vibes.
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