Everybody’s yelling that $100 oil means the market has to die. I tested it. I wanted it to work. Short-the-spike would be a nice trade.
Seven spikes since 1973. Five lined up near a crash on a headline. 2000. 2008. 2022. Looks scary until you look at the clock.
1973 embargo. Stocks topped 9 months before oil ripped.
2008. Same thing. Stocks first, oil later.
2022. Market topped in January. Oil didn’t really get going until after. When oil peaked that was the low in stocks, not the start of the dump.
The one time oil led was 1990. Gulf War. $20 to $40 and back down. Market sold off after. Not a giant crash.
2008 is the one people wave around. Oil was hanging $50-$75 then ripped while the market was already falling. Oil up, stocks down. Oil down, stocks still down. No trade there.
Right now oil’s been ripping all year. Market’s been fine.
So no. High oil is not predictive. It’s a story that shows up next to bad markets sometimes. That’s not the same thing.
Free list: one idea a night. I don’t sell the list. Stats Edge is the systems if you’re done trading vibes. Have a good weekend. Get away from the screens.