Rare Earth Mania, Quantified With TMC
StatsEdgeTrading
Rare earth names have been going crazy again. MP, UMAY, all the usual suspects are ripping on headlines about government buying and “critical minerals.” In that kind of tape, most traders end up doing the same thing: chase whatever is already vertical and hope.
I would rather let the stats do the work.
Today’s Free Trade of the Week is TMC, The Metals Company. It is a simple pullback setup: first you get a breakout, then you get a controlled pullback into a level that actually matters. In this case, eight bucks.
If you scroll back on the chart, that 8 dollar zone is just stupidly clean: resistance, resistance, resistance. Price finally broke through, then dipped a little bit back under. My system actually triggered around 8.39 in the morning; price is now trading under my entry, which means you are seeing this at a better location than I got.
The plan is straightforward:
Let TMC prove it can reclaim 8 and hold that zone.
Use the prior resistance turned support as your line in the sand.
Size the trade so that a normal stop under that zone is just another small loss in a long series, not an emotional event.
Is this guaranteed to work? Of course not. But this exact pattern — strong name, clean breakout, pullback into prior resistance — is something I have decades of backtests on, across thousands of trades. That is why I can stay pretty emotionless about any single outcome. Quant beats vibes.
If you like this kind of idea, remember this is just one trade pulled from a much bigger engine. StatsEdge Pro members get a full weekend list of swing setups, daily day trading systems, and monthly rotation models, all with full backtests you can dig into yourself.
Do your own homework, know where you are wrong on TMC, and never bet the farm on one metals stock. If you want more quantified edges delivered to you every week, come over to www.statsedgetrading.com for the free courses, newsletter, and a deeper look at StatsEdge Pro.