SpaceX triggered the signal this morning. Here’s the whole plan.
RSI at 2, a 4.5% gap down, and 16 years of data on what usually happens next.
SpaceX is getting hammered, and this morning it tripped something my nightly scans watch for. The 2-period RSI is at 2, about as oversold as the math allows, and it’s gapping down roughly 4.5%.
A discretionary trader stops there and inserts their feelings about Elon. I go to the data. SpaceX is too young to study alone, but it’s a Nasdaq 100 name, so I ran every Nasdaq 100 stock from 2010 through 2026: RSI 2 or lower plus a gap down of 3% or more. 155 events. Same day, 66% finish higher. Two days later, 75% are higher. Buying on a random day is a coin flip, so that’s real signal, and the large gap is the kicker that separates it from the small-gap noise. Robustness check: strip out COVID and the edge degrades but holds around 65 to 67%.
The plan I sent Pro members this morning: entry near 125, stop 8% below because that’s how deep these pullbacks run before recovering, 131 as the gap fill, 139 as the stretch into the breakdown zone, and a time stop of a couple days to a week. Expectancy is about 0.3R. A quick hit, not a marriage. It fails 17% of the time to the stop, and if this is one of those, the loss gets published at the same volume as a win.
Every one of these goes to Stats Edge Pro members the morning I find them, alongside the ten core systems. $149.99 a month, 30-day money-back guarantee.
Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMS