Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge Evening Note - 8/19/26

A plan to buy the pullback.

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Aug 18, 2026
∙ Paid

The S&P 500 (SPY) fell -0.68% to close at 767.45 while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) dropped a steeper -1.69% to 717.51, with the VIX climbing +4.28% to 15.84. Energy (XLE) led all sectors at +1.76%, while Tech (XLK) lagged badly at -2.47%.

Inside tonight's sheet: 17 new orders - 15 Mean Reversion and Surge Pullback limits resting quietly below the market, waiting for Wednesday's weakness to come to them; 2 Bull-Flag Momentum triggers armed above resistance that only fire if strength shows up. One of them - AGPU, tonight's free Bull-Flag Momentum setup - is open to everyone right below.

AGPU - Axe Compute Inc Common

Axe Compute is a GPU-as-a-Service company that rents enterprises dedicated AI computing clusters, drawing on a partner network of distributed GPUs rather than owning its own data centers. The company is based in Pittsburgh and listed on the Nasdaq.

Entry stop: $10.88 - Stop: $7.70 (attached order)

Last close $10.33 (-2.7%) - volume 1.1M (20-day average 735K) - 52-week range $1.41 to $18.00 (-43% off the high) - ATR (14 days) $1.03

Bull-Flag Momentum. A stock shows exceptional power, then rests quietly without giving back its gains - the crowd that missed the move is waiting underneath. We buy the actual resumption of the advance - never the rest itself - and a structure under the rest period defines the risk. Low win rate, big winners - the math lives in the asymmetry.

Tested 2,358 trades: 40% win rate, +12.66% average winner, -6.52% average loser, 1.28 profit factor, 6.17% CAGR over the 25-year test, $100k became 4.6x.

How we trade it

Entry: This stock just showed exceptional power and has been resting quietly without giving back its gains. Our buy STOP sits above the market - no resumption of the advance, no trade.

Size: Put about 5% of your account into each name, up to 15 of them at once — the order basket lists the exact percent per name.

Exit: Let the winner run - the attached trailing stop does the selling for you, no daily decision required. A position that merely stalls without stopping out gets sold at the open on Friday, September 25 - set a dated market-on-open sell for that date as the backstop.

Risk: The stop price on this card is a REAL attached order - enter it with the buy. It sits under the floor of the rest period and rises as the trade works; a failed consolidation means a defined, modest loss taken automatically.

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