The Most Hated All-Time High In History
StatsEdgeTrading
The market just put in three weeks straight to the upside, and almost nobody is positioned for it. AAII bullish sentiment is sitting around 30–40% — the same readings we saw right after the tariff tantrum lows. That setup didn’t end with a top. It ended with a slow grind to new highs.
Three things worth sitting with:
Hedges are bleeding. Funds running long books with short hedges or futures are watching those hedges go underwater. Covering them adds fuel to the move.
Career risk is real. Underexposed managers don’t catch up by buying SPY — they reach for the high-beta, illiquid names. That’s part of why quantum computing and other speculative pockets are ripping.
Extended is not the same as wrong. After the tariff-tantrum breakout, we got 5–6 weeks of sideways chop before continuation. A pullback would be healthy. It doesn’t have to be the top.
Action plan: don’t confuse “extended” with “shortable.” Define your bias with rules, size for the chop, and let the data — not the headlines — tell you when sentiment finally rolls over.
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