The space stock call worked perfectly. Now Anthropic and OpenAI are next.
A 2010 study predicted the SpaceX basket selloff. Virgin Galactic fell 32%. Here's how to play the next mega IPO.
Friday I made a video about SpaceX that wasn’t about SpaceX. It was about the other space stocks and why you should be worried about them. The call worked perfectly, so let me walk through the thought process, because there are two more giant IPOs coming and the same setup applies.
The premise came from a Journal of Finance study. When a major IPO hits, the other names in that sector get sold. Facebook in 2012 is the template: Facebook itself barely moved on day one while LinkedIn, Groupon, Yelp, and Zynga sold off. I said watch Virgin Galactic and the rest of the space basket.
It happened almost to the letter. SpaceX up 19% if you got the allocation, around 8% off the open. Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, ASTS, and Virgin Galactic all got beat up. Virgin Galactic down 32% in a single day. Same chart as Facebook, twelve years later.
The logic is simple once you think about it. Planet Labs didn’t suddenly become a bad company. But if I run a space ETF, I have to own the biggest name. To buy it, I sell part of the rest of the basket. Five names to choose from became six. So I trim the other five to fund the new one. It’s not a business judgment. It’s plumbing.
Now the question is what’s next. Anthropic is rumored for fall 2026. That’s the next mega IPO, and the AI names are the basket to watch: SoundHound, BigBear.ai, Palantir. Two caveats. OpenAI doesn’t IPO yet, and Amazon and Google own big chunks of Anthropic, so they’ll move with it.
Here’s where it matters for you as a Pro member. When Anthropic lists, I’ll be calling out the exact names I’m looking to short or buy puts on, and the trades around it. I call these exploitative trades. They don’t have 25 years of backtested data like everything else we run. This is me saying here’s the study, here’s a perfect live example of it, here’s the discretionary trade I’m making off it. You see the whole process, not vibes, not squiggly lines.
The Drawdown Memo and the full system suite are built on the 25-year stuff. These exploitative IPO trades are a new layer I’m bringing to the room when rare events like this line up.
If you want the exact tickers, entries, and the short and put-option setups when Anthropic lists, that’s the Stats Edge Pro room. Upgrade to paid at $149.99/month, with a 30-day money-back guarantee.
— Michael Nauss, CMT, CAIA, CDMS