Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Tonight's free trade: CRM

Biotech Party, Tech Headache.

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Oct 30, 2026
∙ Paid

Biotech closed at a record high today, then Intel and Amazon dropped after the close and took the Nasdaq down with them. Salesforce had a bigger drop than usual, and I would rather catch it a little lower, see that free trade idea below.

What caught my eye on Thursday

Chart of IBB, the iShares Biotechnology ETF, daily bars from July 1 to Oct 29, 2026: a close of 217.86, above the old record close of 216.96 from Aug 19

Biotech closed at a record high, and it has tech in the name, so that has to make someone happy.

Chart of Intel (INTC) 1-minute bars on Oct 29: near $92 in the regular session, then a drop of about 23% after hours

Intel fell about 23% after the close.

Chart of QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, 1-minute bars on Oct 29: down 1.4% in the regular session, then another 1.6% after hours

Amazon fell about 7% too, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped another 1.6% after hours.

Tonight's free trade: CRM

  • Entry: BUY LIMIT $225.91, day order

  • Stop: On the fill day's close; the sheet says if hit

  • Exit: Dated sell at the open Nov 3; target after a fill

If it never fills, it cancels itself and there is no trade.

CRM card: buy limit. Entry Limit $225.91, stop Fill-day close, size 6%, hold Up to 2 days, exit Target or 2 days.

How Wide Mean Reversion works

Liquid stocks outside the Nasdaq-100 that are still in long-term uptrends sometimes take a bigger-than-usual one-day drop. We rest a buy limit beneath the market for the snap-back. We get out fast: a profit target the session after the fill, or the open two sessions after it. Built in 2026 and tested back to 2001.

One thing worth knowing

Wide Mean Reversion's winners and losers are about the same size. In our 26-year test, winners averaged +4.43% and losers -4.17%. The edge is how often it wins: 61.8% of 3,203 trades made money.

Would you take this one? Hit reply and tell me how you'd play it. I read every reply.

Below: the rest of tonight's ideas, the exact orders, and how we're managing the open positions.

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