Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Tonight's free trade: GRMN

FOMC Snooze Fest.

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Oct 28, 2026
∙ Paid

The Fed held rates and the market barely moved, then after the bell Alphabet fell about 9% and Microsoft rose about 3% on their earnings. Garmin dropped almost 6% today, and I would rather catch it a little lower, see that free trade idea below.

What caught my eye on Wednesday

Chart of the past week for small caps, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow and developed and emerging markets, with the Fed's 2:00 p.m. statement marked; small caps up 1.7%, the rest near flat
Chart idea: Mike Zaccardi (@MikeZaccardi)

The Fed kept rates where they are today. The market barely blinked: in the half hour after the 2:00 p.m. statement, the S&P 500 never moved more than 0.2% either way, and it closed just 0.1% above where it stood right before. Small caps wobbled more, then finished the past week up 1.7%, while everything else on this chart ended within 0.6% of where it started.

Chart of Alphabet (GOOGL) 1-minute bars on Oct 28: flat near $325 in the regular session, then a drop of about 9% after hours following its earnings report

Alphabet and Microsoft both reported right after the 4:00 p.m. close, and their stocks went opposite ways.

Chart of Microsoft (MSFT) 1-minute bars on Oct 28: flat near $531 in the regular session, then a rise of about 3% after hours following its earnings report

Microsoft went the other way.

Tonight's free trade: GRMN

How to place it: enter a BUY LIMIT for GRMN at $266.58, good for the day only - if it never fills, it cancels itself and there is no trade. We sell for Monday, November 2. Members get the exact profit target on the sheet the evening after a fill, a sell limit for the next session only, and that sheet also says whether the close on the day you are filled hit its stop. Do NOT rest a stop order for this one: its stop counts only on the close of the day you are filled. An intraday dip is normal and is not an exit.

GRMN card: buy limit. Entry Limit $266.58, stop Fill-day close, size 6%, hold Up to 2 days, exit Target or 2 days.

How Wide Mean Reversion works

Liquid stocks outside the Nasdaq-100 that are still in long-term uptrends sometimes take a bigger-than-usual one-day drop. We rest a buy limit beneath the market for the snap-back. We get out fast: a profit target the session after the fill, or the open two sessions after it. Built in 2026 and tested back to 2001.

One thing worth knowing

Waiting for a lower price is where this kind of dip buy earns its money. In our test, buying at the next morning's open made +0.13% a trade on average. Buying only at our lower limit price made +1.12%, more than eight times as much.

Would you take this one? Hit reply and tell me how you'd play it. I read every reply.

Below: the rest of tonight's ideas, the exact orders, and how we're managing the open positions.

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