Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Stats Edge by Michael Nauss CMT

Tonight's free trade: Two-week slide in WDAY

Evening Note

Michael Nauss CMT's avatar
Michael Nauss CMT
Nov 10, 2026
∙ Paid

Both sides took credit for the election swings, and after today's 2.4% jump the S&P 500 sits a quarter of a percent below where it closed on election day. Workday, the payroll and HR software maker, slipped 1.4% while the market rallied, and I would rather buy it a little lower, so our order only fills if it keeps sliding on Tuesday.

Workday sells cloud software that large organisations run their people and money on. WDAY pulled back hard inside a longer uptrend. Tonight's free trade is a buy limit at $187.70, with the stop and exit written out below. Industrials led the sectors on Monday.

What caught my eye on Monday

Stats Edge chart of the S&P 500 in 15-minute bars from the election day close on Tuesday, November 3 to today's close, in percent from that close

A week of loud election takes, and the S&P 500 ended today within a quarter of a percent of its election day close.

Tonight's free trade: WDAY

  • Buy limit $187.70, day order

  • Stop: after a close beneath $166.82, sell at the next open

  • Exit: a close above the prior day's high sells it at the next open

  • Time exit: sell at the open Mon Nov 30

WDAY card: buy limit. Entry Limit $187.70, stop $166.82, size 4%, hold Up to 13 days, exit Bounce or 13 days.

The stop is not an order you place: only a close beneath $166.82 counts. It assumes a fill at the limit; a lower fill lowers it by the same amount. Whichever exit comes first closes the trade.

How Mean Reversion works

The most-watched names in the market get defended. This system buys a hard pullback in a leader that is still in a healthy longer-term uptrend, with a buy limit just under the close. Out within days.

One thing worth knowing

This dip buy's losing trades run a little bigger than its winners. In our 26-year test, winners averaged +4.43% and losers -4.94%. It still pays because about seven in ten trades win: 69.3% of 2,044, for +1.55% a trade on average.

Would you take this one? Hit reply and tell me how you'd play it. I read every reply.

Below the line: 2 more swing trades and 45 day-trade setups for Tuesday, with the exact entry, stop and exit for each, plus the stops and exits on our 7 open positions.

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