What Happens After 6 Green Months?

StatsEdgeTrading

SPY just printed six straight green monthly candles. Sounds extreme—but is it bearish?

I built a simple indicator to scan for similar streaks. Since 1995, we’ve had a handful of 6+ month runs. The outcome? Mostly chill. 2013 doubled. 2017 tacked on 6 more months. Even 2007 popped higher before the GFC unwound it. No evidence of “immediate crash” behaviour.

That doesn’t mean back up the truck. But it does suggest we shouldn’t panic short into strength.

Quant takeaway: This setup doesn’t kill bull markets. Often, it’s just digestion next—chop, pullbacks, and mean reversion setups (especially with VIX low). So if you’re systematic like us at StatsEdgeTrading, this is where algo weighting comes in. Favor mean-reverting edges in low-volatility sandboxes. Don’t fight the tape.

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