Where the big guys are positioned right now
StatsEdgeTrading
We finally have fresh Commitment of Traders data again, and it’s worth talking about—because this is one of the few sentiment tools that actually works when used correctly.
Quick refresher: if you trade futures in the US, your broker reports positioning to the government. The government aggregates it and publishes who’s net long and who’s net short across different participant groups. What we care about most are large speculators, because historically they tend to be wrong at extremes.
That’s the key phrase: at extremes.
All through this stretch where markets kept grinding higher, large specs were heavily short. That gave me confidence to stay long stocks even while the narrative was nonstop doom. If prices are rising and shorts are increasing, someone eventually has to cover. That’s fuel.
Why you haven’t heard me talk about this lately is simple: government shutdown. Data wasn’t released. No updates, no signal. Now we’re caught up again, and we’ll be getting weekly releases going forward.
So what’s changed?
Equities
Large specs have covered a big chunk of their shorts and are now roughly neutral. And look at what price is doing: chopping sideways. That makes sense. When positioning normalizes, there’s no pressure. No squeeze. No panic. In the middle, COT tells us nothing—and that’s fine. Sentiment tools only matter at extremes, just like RSI.
Dollar and euro
This one is interesting. Specs are more long the euro (short the dollar) than they’ve been since 2023. Historically, that’s not a great place to be. When positioning gets this lopsided, any catalyst in the opposite direction can force a fast unwind. A stronger dollar usually puts pressure on risk assets, so this fits with the idea that we’re entering a choppier market regime, not necessarily a full bear market, but not an easy melt-up either.
Gold
Gold keeps drifting higher, but positioning isn’t expanding. No one’s rushing in, no one’s rushing out. That’s neutral information. No signal.
Silver
This is the one that surprised me. Silver has been in the headlines, and price has been pushing higher—but specs are actually selling and shorting into the move. That’s the opposite of what you’d expect if this were a crowded trade. To me, that shifts the mindset from “look for a top” to “watch for dips and bases.” If price holds and sentiment stays skeptical, there may be more upside left
Natural gas
Everyone is short. Again. We’re sitting near a well-respected anchored VWAP from the 2022–2023 highs, price has pulled back hard, and positioning is extreme. That doesn’t mean buy blindly—natural gas is wild—but it does mean I’m watching for a trigger. If price starts reclaiming key levels, trapped shorts could matter.
The takeaway
COT data is not a timing tool. It’s not a standalone trade signal. It’s a context tool.
When everyone is neutral, ignore it.
When everyone is leaning hard one way, pay attention.
Price is still king—but knowing where the pain is hiding can make all the difference.